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Political turmoil in Greece

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Meghan Lodwick:

Welcome to a La Trobe University podcast. I'm Meghan Lodwick and today I'm interviewing Dr Michalis Michael, Deputy Director at the Centre for Dialogue at La Trobe University. Michalis has taught, researched and published extensively on modern Greek history, society and politics. Michalis, thanks for your time.

Michális S. Michael:

A pleasure Meghan.

Meghan Lodwick:

Michalis, now that Prime Minister George Papandreou has stepped down, how will the new government change the situation in Greece?

Michális S. Michael:

Well, that's a very interesting question. Of course you have to bear in mind that this is a short term fix. The current government is to be headed by a technocrat who will only be there until the 19th of February or thereabouts, upon which time there will be national elections, general election. Obviously it's a government that needs to pass legislation or get legislation through in terms of the European loan and the various financial requirements. Therefore it is not a caretaker government. A caretaker government constitutionally, as well as politically, is there to take care of what's needed in light of the elections. It doesn't have any of the legislative powers or executive powers, therefore it's not called a caretaker government, because it needs to make executive decisions. Now politically it can only make decisions and it can only pass legislation with the support of the two large parties, therefore it's a hybrid if you like government. It's supported by the two parties, the socialist PASOK and the conservative New Democracy party, and that has been really the issue of discourse and discontent between finding the terms of reference that will satisfy them, but also politically it will put them in an advantageous position vis-à-vis the general election.

Meghan Lodwick:

How sustainable is this hybrid government at the moment?

Michális S. Michael:

It's become a bit of a witch's brew as they say, trying to find an agreement, trying to find a personality, trying the find the various temporary ministers. Now of course all this is driven by the President of the Republic of Greece, Mr Karolos Papoulias whose role is to make sure that there is a government in place. It's becoming very frustrating for the people, I mean, Greeks are very cynical about politics and politicians, but this has introduced a new threshold of lowness as far as cynicism is concerned. And of course the Europeans, and the European leaders are looking upon it with bated breath to see a stabilising situation. There is a conflict here that we can't dismiss. This is not just a political issue, it is a social issue, it's a psychological issue, it's also a cultural issue – it's not just economics and it's not just politics. In that respect it's a turning point for Greece and Greek society. It's reminiscent of 1974, when Greece came out of a military dictatorship and those first six months there was such uncertainty in jockeying and positioning and politics by default, trying to find both the formula of consensus amongst the various emerging political parties and political forces, but at the same time, chart a new democratic system and culture.

Meghan Lodwick:

Now you mentioned the civil unrest towards the government and amongst the people. Would Greece be better off going it alone, out of the EU?

Michális S. Michael:

The short answer to that is no. I know there's been sporadic voices, both within and outside of Greece to that effect. The European Union offers Greece a lot of advantages and benefits, also a lot of challenges. I can't see how Greece economically, let alone politically in a security sense, could go it alone, as you put it. Greece would need to attach itself to some sort of a coalition or alliance for security and economic and political reasons. It's a country of barely eleven million people, so it's a very small economy and a very small country. It needs to attach itself to something. The European Union is something that it's fought most of its modern life to enter, into the club, it got in in the early 80s. Nobody's talking about removing it from the EU.

Meghan Lodwick:

Why do you think it's taken so long to arrive at this decision, given the severity and the long standing nature of the economic issues.

Michális S. Michael:

Well, I think that the crisis is something that's been building on for at least two decades. It is not something that's happened in the last government, or even the last two governments. Where the fault is to be placed as far as the last two governments is concerned, is that debt hasn't been dealt with and it hasn't been communicated effectively to the Greek people and to the Greek constituency. What we have is a chronic accumulation of debt by borrowing in order to finance growing public service at the expense of income revenue. If you don't receive income from taxes, and that's another chronic problem – the sort of shambles I would say of the Greek taxation system. There is a lot of loopholes, and I'm not just talking about lower to middle socio-economic classes, I'm talking about the big end of town, company taxes, the rich tax. So if you don't get taxes in, how are you going to pay for the social wage, let alone pay for your public service. The answer to that was to borrow. Now, borrow, borrow, borrow, there came a day when we have this crisis financially. But it's also a crisis culturally, and politically, as well as anything else. The need for accountable, transparent and responsible government, but it's not just the government, and it's not just the political class and the elite that are at fault – I place also at fault the economists and the media, especially. It is their role to monitor and scrutinise these things. I can't accept that this accumulation of debt was done without the knowledge of the economists and the media. If it was, then what is their role? In one respect people do get the government, and the opposition, that they deserve because they elected them, but it's an oversimplification. In Greece's terms there is a chronic issue here of political nepotism and recycling, not only because you have dynasties of political families, like the Papandreou for example. This is the third generation of prime ministership. Now there's nothing wrong with that, but, on the other hand, it raises the spectre of nepotism and internal inbreeding if you like.

Meghan Lodwick:

Do you think that Papandreou's resignation is a step towards kind of an evolution outside of the dynasty government?

Michális S. Michael:

I don't know, to be quite honest. I don't think it's a circuit breaker or a paradigm shift. I'm afraid that it might be just business as usual, just a hiccup, that things will revert back to standard practice once the crisis is over. The elections and parliamentary representation has a propensity of developing its own political discourse and practice. It's more a question of culture and the system that needs to intervene here.

Meghan Lodwick:

Do you think it's what the Greek people want?

Michális S. Michael:

Well, I think the Greek people have had an enormous reality check – that they were living beyond their means, or they were misled to believe that they could live beyond their means. There's a discretion here of course about who's going to be victimised for this, and I'm afraid, unfortunately, as usually is the case, the lower socio-economic classes are the ones that are going to bear the brunt. The ones that can't really draw on reserves that they've got in bank accounts, either within Greece, but more importantly, overseas. And there's also an enormous underclass here of illegal non-Greek migrants. Figures put them to above a million people. Now, this is within a population of ten, eleven million, that's quite a sizeable mass of people who will be caught within this crisis, unemployment, reduction of services and pensions and welfare. We're going to see an increase of poverty. So it's very much a situation in flux. What the people want – they would like stability and security but also protection, protection politically, economically. I don't think that they'll be getting it and Greece won't come out of this for another ten years. It's a ten year project. If you get it right. If they get all the elements and all the components right and I'm not quite confident that that will occur. If I had to start with some move, it has to be that the two major political parties, probably after the election, because there's no way they're going to get together and agree to a common platform or common plan before the election. Let's forge a national plan for the country, even if it's a minimalist plan. But even that's a big ask.

Meghan Lodwick:

What elements do you think would need to be in a plan like that, in order for some sort of stability to come out of it?

Michális S. Michael:

The economic aspect needs to be addressed. The short term, that is, the loan or the bail-out, needs to be attended to of course. Secondly, is to have a minimal social wage protection, to protect those most vulnerable, more susceptible to financial crisis. Thirdly, they will need to look at areas to become more productive and to generate income, so that will be a hard proposition because they rely extensively on tourism and to some extent on agriculture, but they also need to move I think into more innovative areas, like service provision, maybe some niche economic areas. So that's the way I would approach these sort of four key prongs if you like. I mean, Greeks are highly spirited, passionate, intelligent people, and they should utilise that intellectual capital above and beyond the political circles. Maybe have a convention, a two, three day convention of where do we go from here?

Meghan Lodwick:

Greece has become a by-word for corruption and…

Michális S. Michael:

That's right.

Meghan Lodwick:

… economic inefficiencies as a result of this crisis. Is that a fair judgment? Will that be an obstacle, their world view?

Michális S. Michael:

It's a bit of escapism, you know, blame the Greeks. I've been watching some of the satirists, of how European papers and the French paper Le Libération has got in Greek words, chaos, you know, in Greek characters, and they've been playing on that. But it is an image problem that they've got and they need to address it, and they need to address it quickly, otherwise it will cost them, as far as confidence is concerned. As I said, if they go at it proactively and by example, rather than by argumentation and agitation, I think that they could turn the image around, but they need to address that.

Meghan Lodwick:

What about back here in Australia? How has the Greek community kind of reacted to what's been going on overseas?

Michális S. Michael:

Yes, that's a very good question. Now of course Australia's a long way from Greece but in a way it has very strong and close links – the Greek-Australian community is one of the largest Greek diasporas outside of Greece after the United States. It's also a younger one and in that respect it is closer to what I call the 'Greek Reality'. There's been a commentary and there's been discussions, of a very superficial and a very elementary level, about helping Greece. The other aspect to that is that Australia might find itself being the recipient of Greek migrants, if they get through the requirements. There's also the category within Greeks who are Australian citizens of families who repatriated, they have retained their citizenship and are eligible to return. It's interesting that you might see this bump in immigration from Greece to Australia. And that can work good – it could inject the Greek-Australian community here with some fresh blood, as they say, installing a closer connection. There's a need for dialogue, definitely, between Australia and Greece and the conduit are the Greek Australians. In that respect what happens in Greece becomes big news here in Australia.

Meghan Lodwick:

Now you mentioned the elections in February 2012.

Michális S. Michael:

Well, that's what's been earmarked. That's the date that's been mentioned, but that's subject to change, like everything else in politics, and in Greek politics. But let's say the election should be early 2012. I can't see it delaying much more beyond March.

Meghan Lodwick:

Do you see much civil unrest during that time period?

Michális S. Michael:

I don't know about civil unrest. Of course Greek politics and Greek campaigns are very lively events. They are unlike what we experience here. They still maintain the mass gatherings and pre-election campaign speeches in squares, with a lot of people – it's a mass, populous event. Having said that, I foresee a very tough campaign, aggressive in a political sense and adversarial. I hope that in the campaign there will be some space for innovation, ideas, proposals, plans, and debate – that these ideas are scrutinised and discussed. Otherwise it will just be empty air and propaganda and rhetoric, electioneering.

Meghan Lodwick:

You mentioned the news reports. How would you like to see the media treat what's going on in Greece right now?

Michális S. Michael:

Some media has been more responsible and more insightful than others. Unfortunately that seems to be coming from the non-English speaking newspapers, and I'm not just referring to Greek newspapers. Greek media could be classified into two sets – i.e. the sort of more intelligent and responsible, insightful, probing – that's a very small niche by the way in the more popular broadsheets. But the media does form opinions and it influences decision-makers, especially in Europe and the European centres and hopefully some of the media will be more responsible than others. But, you know, at the end of the day these people, the commissioners and the decision makers, they know the lay of the land, and I hope they know which media outlet to take seriously. It still is at the level of the outsider looking in. They need to go in and maybe one way is to engage Greek journalists, like what has been done in the Arab world.

Meghan Lodwick:

That's all the time we've got for the La Trobe University podcast today. If you'd like to leave some feedback about this or any other podcast in this series, or suggest a possible topic, you can get in touch with us at podcast@latrobe.edu.au. Michalis, thanks very much for your time.

Michális S. Michael:

My pleasure.